Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

General discussions on hiking in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest
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retired jerry
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Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by retired jerry » October 22nd, 2014, 2:33 pm

NOAA winter forecast says winter will be warmer and drier

Especially Eastern Washington will be drier

All of Oregon and Washington will be warmer

El Niño

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IslandCougGirl
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Re: Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by IslandCougGirl » October 22nd, 2014, 4:27 pm

Well I'm not sad-I hate snow.

pdxgene
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Re: Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by pdxgene » October 22nd, 2014, 4:57 pm

retired jerry wrote:NOAA winter forecast says winter will be warmer and drier

Especially Eastern Washington will be drier

All of Oregon and Washington will be warmer

El Niño
Yeah, that's all nice and all but what about the next 8 weeks 'til the 'official' start of winter?
It looks pretty unwarm and undry outside right about now and throughout the next 7days.. :P

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weathercrazy
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Re: Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by weathercrazy » October 22nd, 2014, 5:17 pm

I can assure you, warm and dry doesn't mean there won't be snow :)

Some huge snows have occurred in El Nino years...

That being said, we receive less snow in general than we did years. We have also had a couple of snowy years the last few years, so we are due for a winter with little/no snow.

1.77" so far today in Battle Ground haha

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drm
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Re: Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by drm » October 23rd, 2014, 10:08 am

pdxgene wrote:It looks pretty unwarm and undry outside right about now and throughout the next 7 days.. :P
Look at the bright side. You won't go blind trying to look at the solar eclipse today even without special glasses.

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sprengers4jc
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Re: Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by sprengers4jc » October 23rd, 2014, 10:53 am

Four out of five Wooly Bears agree with NOAA: an average, mild winter for us :P .
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Lumpy
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Re: Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by Lumpy » October 23rd, 2014, 11:40 am

Computer models looking at historical data. While this can be reasonably accurate, it's not foolproof, and there are some damn good fools out and about.

Only time will tell if the forecast is correct.
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xrp
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Re: Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by xrp » October 23rd, 2014, 7:41 pm

weathercrazy wrote: That being said, we receive less snow in general than we did years.
Huh...

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/ ... n-mt-hood/

The Snow Melt Out Day on Mt Hood is trending to later in the summer.

So either the trend is more snow during the snow season or lower temperatures during/after snow season delaying the melt out.

raven
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Re: Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by raven » October 23rd, 2014, 11:40 pm

Wrong. Remove 2012 and the trend line is statistically flat. With 2012 in it may be too; the confidence interval for the slope was not reported and the line may have been free hand.

forestkeeper
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Re: Pacific Northwest warmer drier winter

Post by forestkeeper » October 24th, 2014, 2:06 am

We need another snow storm like 2008. :lol: Keeps the waterfalls flowing in summertime.

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